Summary
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A bold work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one’s own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: • For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. • Ethical rules aren’t universal. You’re part of a group larger than you, but it’s still smaller than humanity in general. • Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. • You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. “Educated philistines” have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. • Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. • True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you’re willing to risk for it. The phrase “skin in the game” is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it’s also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, “The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that’s necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster,” and “Never trust anyone who doesn’t have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them.”
Skin in the game : being 100% accountable for your mistakes - because if you seperate direct consequences from decisions makers, they do not have the sufficient incentive to take « rational decisions ». There is no evolution without skin in the game. Risk transfer system > no skin in the game > exemple de l’interventionnisme des USA et des banques en 2008 People have 2 brains, one when there is skin in the game (a lot of incentive, implication), and one when there is not Ethics is not scalable : people get along better as neighbors than roommates > that’s where universalism/interventionism fails. Quotes that summarizes the failure of political universalism : « I am at the Fed level libertarian, at the state level republican, at the local level democrat and at the family and the friends level socialist » Minority rule > Genes follow majority rule ; language follow minority rule > Society does not evolve by consensus ; only a few people suffice to disproportionately move the needle. Market / collective is the not the result of the sum of the individuals > asymmetrical . Freedom is never free > you must take risks to get a real freedom . Only the risk-takers are part of the history The assymetry about how people claims inequality/envy rich people. Example : It is right that a star, a sportsmen, .. become very rich but it is a scandal that someone who is doing commerce become rich. / People tend to think that wealth is “zero-sum”, meaning that if someone get rich, it’s at the expense of another peoples that looses money, except for the stars, etc. of course. / Inequality are often not well analyzed, example of pikkety work, .. Fragility > sensitivity to disorder The only effectivement judge of things is time Critics of the academic word, where academician are rated by other academician, and based most of their work on theory. / And they do not have skin in the game . Loss aversion : loss is more painful than a gain is pleasant . Madness of crowds : Madness is rare in individuals, but in groups, parties, nations, it is the rule (Nietzsche) . Never rely on the appearances Surgeon should not look like surgeon Real rich people often don’t look like rich people Intellectual should not appear as intellectual . Rich people are the target of the « cosmetic effect » : it’s expensive/it looks expensive/it looks complicated therefore it’s fine. Even though it is in most case an illusion. . Facts are true, News are fake. Nowadays you can destroy anyone, just by taking one randomn text, select a particular statement, and extrapolate it out of context. . Virtue. To be or to be seen as such ? Courage (risk taking) is the highest virtue, we need entrepreneurs. . Religion People who are atheists in actions and religious in words (majority) / people who are religious in action and in words (salafist/Islamist) . Rationality resides in what you do, not what you think or in what you believe - There is no such thing as the “rationality” of a belief, there is rationality of action > la vraie rationalité se perçoit uniquement dans les actions réalisées . Making some types of errors is the most rational things to do, when they are of little cost, as they lead to discoveries > only evolution knows if the wrong is wrong . Recall that skin in the game means that you do not pay attention to what people say, only what they do, and how much they are putting in the line. > How much you truly “believe” in something can be manifested only through what you are willing to risk for it. > Rationality is only what allow survival, avoids ruin. No wealth without exposure No love without sacrifice No religion without tolerance No life without effort